I wonder if part of it is financial writers have to write about something, so they speculate about how recent economic indicators might affect monetary policy and how monetary policy might affect asset prices. If you really could be aware of this information before other market participants, maybe you could make profitable trades based on central bank decisions. But you can make money speculating on anything if you know the future. Speculating on actual future earnings actually allocates capital based on merit rather than guessing what central banks will do. Now that cryptocurrencies and possibly similar technologies are an alternative to fiat money, I hope market participants will move to them to get away from this extra layer of complication that central bank policy adds.
Yes, certainly writers (and podcast hosts, news shows, filmmakers, etc.) need to create content and predicting the future has always been a favorite human endeavor. Of course, anticipating the future by knowing cause and effect is the same as human survival. In this case, I think its more of about complexity worship. Everyone has been taught versions of Keynesian, Monetarist and Neoclassical economics and no one in complex society has known anything other than government monopoly of currency and heavy-handed economic regulation. Regarding earnings projections and speculation, yes, that adds greatly to the information about common stocks that is available to investors and therefore adds to the efficiency of markets. Regarding crypto, especially Bitcoin, I love the decentralization of Blockchain, but lets not forget about the identity of sound money. It must be a stable store of value. Crypto never has been and I don't know that it ever will be.
I wonder if part of it is financial writers have to write about something, so they speculate about how recent economic indicators might affect monetary policy and how monetary policy might affect asset prices. If you really could be aware of this information before other market participants, maybe you could make profitable trades based on central bank decisions. But you can make money speculating on anything if you know the future. Speculating on actual future earnings actually allocates capital based on merit rather than guessing what central banks will do. Now that cryptocurrencies and possibly similar technologies are an alternative to fiat money, I hope market participants will move to them to get away from this extra layer of complication that central bank policy adds.
Yes, certainly writers (and podcast hosts, news shows, filmmakers, etc.) need to create content and predicting the future has always been a favorite human endeavor. Of course, anticipating the future by knowing cause and effect is the same as human survival. In this case, I think its more of about complexity worship. Everyone has been taught versions of Keynesian, Monetarist and Neoclassical economics and no one in complex society has known anything other than government monopoly of currency and heavy-handed economic regulation. Regarding earnings projections and speculation, yes, that adds greatly to the information about common stocks that is available to investors and therefore adds to the efficiency of markets. Regarding crypto, especially Bitcoin, I love the decentralization of Blockchain, but lets not forget about the identity of sound money. It must be a stable store of value. Crypto never has been and I don't know that it ever will be.